Seeing how the end of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell is imminent, a few predictions came to mind I thought I might share:
- Very few supervisors or peers will be surprised by a subordinate or coworker who comes out of the closet. Secrets like that are hard to keep well, particularly in the tight-knit environment of military units.
- The numbers of service members who come out will represent a tiny fraction of the military–well below even the conservative estimates of their representation in the general population.
- Many homosexuals currently serving will stay right where they are–in the closet–due to other social pressures.
- While the media will be eager to portray a groundswell of homosexuals rushing to enlist, an actual groundswell won’t emerge.
- Activists and newly out homosexual service members will redirect their pressure and resources toward tearing down the Defense of Marriage Act.
In the meantime, standby for the official message and manufactured fanfare.